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Portuguese economy leads EU growth in 2022

19 MEI 2022
Onderwerpen
Destaque Notícia Homepage Portugal Zona Euro União Europeia
In contrast to the countries in the euro zone and the European Union as a whole, Portugal's GDP is expected to reach 5.8% in 2022, and to settle at 2.7% next year.
Portuguese economy leads EU growth in 2022
According to the estimates advanced by the European Commission, in contrast with the euro zone countries and with the European Union as a whole, the Portuguese economy's growth should reach 5.8% in 2022, and settle at 2.7% next year.

The two figures reflect an upward revision of Brussels' projections for Portugal's performance, which stands out as the country least affected by the current economic situation at the European level.

Overall, the European Commission has corrected down its forecasts for the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022, to accommodate the effect caused by rising prices of energy, raw materials and food, as well as the impact of war in Ukraine, which caused a sharp slowdown in the economy. 

The growth forecast for 2022 in the European Union has been revised down to 2.7%, instead of 4%, as anticipated in the winter exercise; with the figure for 2023 also coming in below previous forecasts, at 2.3%.

As the European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, pointed out this morning, the consequences of rising prices, disruption of supply chains and, above all, geopolitical tensions, manifest themselves "very differently" in EU member states, with central and eastern countries, more dependent on trade with Russia and Ukraine, suffering a greater "shock" caused by the war.

The Commission will disclose next week, at the presentation of the spring package of the European Semester, whether it plans to dismantle the escape clause at the end of this year, or whether it proposes extending it into 2023. 

Gentiloni did not want to point out in which direction the executive is working, but made a point of stating that instability and uncertainty, especially about the prolongation of the war, is still great and "the economy is still far from a normal situation."

Inflation forecast almost doubles in the EU, to 6.8%
Portugal is also the EU country where the impact of rising prices will be felt least. The Commission had to almost double its forecast for inflation in 2022, which is expected to hit 6.8% in the EU (6.1% in the eurozone) and to fall to 3.2% (2.7% in the eurozone) next year.

The Portuguese figures were also revised upwards, however, the projections indicate a smaller increase than the European average, of 4.4% this year and 1.9% in 2023.

The Commission's expectation is that inflation will peak in the second quarter of this year, and begin a decline that will still be gradual until the end of 2022 and more substantial in 2023. Gentiloni said that this scenario had been drawn up based on future commodity prices.

But Brussels has calculations for more adverse, and even "severe" scenarios, such as of a complete cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Europe, which "would lead to a 1% cut in growth and a 3% rise in inflation," throwing the growth outlook into negative territory.
Onderwerpen
Destaque Notícia Homepage Portugal Zona Euro União Europeia
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