A 10.7-point drop in secondary completion reduces higher education entries in 2025 and may threaten education targets.
Source: Adobe Stock
Author: Redaction
Decline in secondary completion
The completion rate of secondary education in Portugal fell by 10.7 percentage points in the 2024/2025 academic year, directly impacting access to higher education. According to the report “Break in Entries to Higher Education in 2025/26”, this decline helps explain the reduction of around six thousand students placed in the first phase of the national admissions process.
The decrease in secondary completion reduced the pool of higher education applicants, as entry age generally coincides with the completion of this level of education.
Fewer higher education placements
In 2025, there was a drop of approximately 10% in the total number of new enrolments in higher education in Portugal, including the national admissions process and other entry routes. The study indicates that this decline was not offset in later phases of the process.
The drop in access to higher education also reflects a return to levels below those recorded before the pandemic, interrupting a growth trajectory in Portugal’s higher education system.
Exams and stricter rules
The report highlights the volatility of national exam grading and the increase in the minimum number of entrance exams as factors limiting access to higher education. These changes reduced the number of eligible candidates, contributing to the drop in higher education admissions.
The requirement for two entrance exams is estimated to have accounted for around 46% of the reduction in first-phase placements, according to the study, without evidence of improved academic success.
Impact on education targets
The reduction in secondary completion, combined with social support weaknesses and a shrinking youth population, may compromise Portugal’s goal of reaching 50% of adults aged 25 to 34 with higher education by 2030.
Despite the impact of exam rules, the report stresses that the decline in secondary completion also occurred in vocational education, indicating that the trend results from multiple structural factors in Portugal’s education system.
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